10th August, 2026
Small Caps Take the Lead: A Decade in the Making
Small caps are quietly having a breakout year, outperforming large caps calendar year to date by roughly 9%. Understandably, this data point has slipped under the radar as investors are caught up in attention-grabbing headlines about artificial intelligence, war, inflation and high interest rates. It’s been ten years since small cap indices in the US saw meaningful outperformance relative to large — we believe this could be the beginning of a much longer-term trend1.
Two forces driving the shift
Small cap outperformance, relative to large cap, this year is driven by two intertwined factors. First, investors may be growing sceptical of the hundreds of billions being poured into AI data centre buildouts with questionable economics. Second, earnings growth is broadening — most forecast S&P 500 earnings growth is now coming from the broader market, not the handful of mega-cap tech names that dominated 2023–2025. It’s refreshing to see stock prices rewarding small cap earnings growth.
Small caps’ lost decade
Small caps have faced a difficult decade, and we have the scars to prove it. Tariffs, trade wars, COVID lockdowns, wars (Russia/Ukraine and US/Iran), deglobalisation, inflation and high interest rates have made for a tough backdrop for smaller businesses, which tend to rely on business confidence and a stronger economy to perform well.
At the same time, economic value has flowed to mega-cap businesses, driving significant concentration in benchmarks, particularly in the US. Recent research shows the S&P 500 hasn’t been this concentrated, measured by its top five companies, since the early 1970s2.
What the Nifty Fifty can teach us
Students of financial history will remember the 1970s as the “Nifty Fifty” era: the idea that investors should own the same 50 blue-chip growth stocks and watch their wealth compound. The largest five companies at the time were IBM, AT&T, General Motors, Exxon, and Eastman Kodak, making up roughly 25% of the S&P 500. That basket traded at a significant premium to the broader market, and the bubble eventually popped. It’s always hard to pin a clear catalyst on a bursting bubble, but most point to a controversial Republican president (Nixon) introducing a 10% import tariff, combined with an oil crisis, as the trigger that made markets wobble.
Today’s top five
Studying prior eras of concentration unwinding, we find they tend to coincide with smaller companies outperforming — as seen after the Nifty Fifty era and after the dot-com bubble. As of June 2026, the largest five companies were Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, and Amazon, making up a little over 25% of the S&P 500. All iconic businesses, ubiquitous in our everyday lives, and likely AI winners.
You don’t need to be bearish on individual large caps to be bullish on small caps. We’re simply observing that market broadening has historically been a significant tailwind for smaller-company returns.
Why we like the setup
We find the current setup for small caps attractive from an allocation perspective. We’re also seeing more investors use small caps to diversify away from technology-heavy large-cap indices. Small caps offer greater exposure to the real economy, which is seeing encouraging growth across a range of industries after years of subdued growth — driving earnings forecasts higher.
For investors currently on the sidelines, we encourage you to take a closer look at an asset class showing the hallmarks of an attractive entry point.
References
1. Source: Russell 2000 vs S&P500.
2. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank. 30 June 2026
Disclaimer:
This material is prepared by Paradice Investment Management Pty Ltd (ABN 64 090 148 619 AFSL No 224158) (Paradice, we or us) to provide you with general information only.
This material is not intended to constitute advertising or advice (including investment advice or security, market or sector recommendations) of any kind. In addition, this material represents only the views of the Paradice Global Small Cap team as at the time of release and is not intended, and may not, represent the views of Paradice or any of the other investment teams at Paradice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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Contributors:
Paul Mason