{"id":12483,"date":"2024-07-08T10:56:34","date_gmt":"2024-07-08T00:56:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/staging.paradice.com\/au\/au\/?p=12483"},"modified":"2024-10-21T15:22:09","modified_gmt":"2024-10-21T04:22:09","slug":"how-to-play-higher-interest-rates-for-longer-in-equities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/staging.paradice.com\/au\/how-to-play-higher-interest-rates-for-longer-in-equities\/","title":{"rendered":"How to play higher interest rates for longer in equities"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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\u00a08th July, 2024<\/p>

AFR: How to play higher interest rates for longer in equities<\/strong><\/h1>

Our super funds made two things clear: rates are likely to be higher for longer and equities are back in fashion. We ask some stock pickers to name their calls.<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Published in the Australian Financial Review on 8 July 2024. See the original article here<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>

Having done the rounds with super fund CIOs in the past week, we can confidently say two things: higher interest rates for longer is the consensus call and listed equities are back in fashion.<\/p>

Our CIOs can all see rates are coming down in some parts of the world \u2013 Europe, Canada, for example \u2013 but none of them told us to expect any dramatic changes to either Australian or US interest rates this year, pushing the bulk of the rate cuts story into 2025.<\/p>

They\u2019re also holding firm on equities allocations, having done well in shares in FY24 and wanting to capture what is left in the rally.<\/p>

While the CIOs shift asset allocation levers, they leave it to internal or external stock pickers to adjust equities portfolios.<\/p>

So, how will stock pickers try to make money in this environment?<\/p>

We\u2019ve gone to a few of Australia\u2019s top equities shops to find out, including four investors who manage money for the philanthropic Future Generation Australia or its sister fund Future Generation Global, both listed on the ASX.<\/p>

Sage Capital\u2019s Sean Fenton, a long\/short investor, is avoiding Australian banks and retailers and buying travel stocks.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>

He thinks the RBA will keep rates on hold for the rest of this year in a\u00a0bid to topple sticky inflation.<\/p>

\u201cThe RBA may consider a hike or two, but it would be pretty tough to mount a case for cutting rates even though there are signs that the economy is softening,\u201d Fenton says.<\/p>

Fenton is steering clear of retailers, including blue chips Harvey Norman, JB Hi-Fi and Wesfarmers, and think the banks have run too hard.<\/p>

\u201c[The banks] rallied strongly last year on hopes of a rate cut and, despite increased competition, profits have been supported as they have released provisions for bad loans,\u201d he says.<\/p>

\u201cHowever, rate hikes and only a small tick up in bad debts would leave their elevated valuations looking vulnerable.\u201d<\/p>

That underweight banks call is popular in institutional equities-land. Macquarie\u2019s banks analysts were reiterating their underweight the sector call on Monday morning, agreeing the banks cannot grow off the low impairment charges forever.<\/p>

For winners, Fenton is turning to asset-rich Baby Boomers who are fuelling takings at travel companies.<\/p>

\u201cThe demographic that travels and has net assets \u2013 the Baby Boomers \u2013 benefit from higher rates. So travel, while in the consumer discretionary sector, is more resilient to rate hikes than banks or retailers,\u201d he says.<\/p>

He likes Flight Centre, Webjet and Qantas, which he says can also benefit from operational improvements.<\/p><\/div>

Gold, Block<\/h2>

Paradice Investment Management\u2019s Tom Richardson, another long\/short investor, reckons the market is pricing the likelihood of interest rate cuts appropriately: about a 50 per cent probability of a rate rise in Australia by September, and two cuts in the US this year.<\/p>

He likes gold for its past performance in rate-cutting cycles, and bigwig Newmont Mining in particular.<\/p>

\u201cFollowing their acquisition of Newcrest last year, the world\u2019s largest gold miner has a portfolio of long-life and low-cost mines,\u201d he says.<\/p>

\u201cThey are currently looking to sell some smaller mines which will de-gear the balance sheet and provide capital management options.\u201d<\/p>

He also nominated Block Inc, the\u00a0US payments group that hit the ASX-boards when it acquired Australia\u2019s Afterpay two years ago,\u00a0which he says could win from those eventual rate cuts.<\/p>

\u201cWhile the investment is far from predicated on interest rate cuts, we would expect the company to benefit from increased consumer confidence and spending,\u201d he says.<\/p>

\u201cThe business has evolved over the past year instilling financial discipline across all units. We see a long runway for growth at an attractive valuation.\u201d<\/p>

Global view, careful on cuts<\/h2>

Magellan Financial\u2019s Nikki Thomas has a global portfolio. She thinks the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates just once this year or not at all, allowing the election to play out and recognising that economic growth is \u201cstill quite good\u201d.<\/p>

\u201cMost indicators suggest to us that aside from some slowing among consumers, most of the cyclical parts of economies are bottoming or turning up,\u201d Thomas says.<\/p>

\u201cThis will accelerate if interest rates come down.\u201d<\/p>

She says her portfolio is invested between high-quality defensives (Colgate, Stryker, UnitedHealth, for example) which have growth prospects and resilience to a deteriorating economy or a black swan event, and structural growth companies like Microsoft, Amazon, ASML and Netflix.<\/p>

Her stock picks, though? NYSE owner Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and Amazon.<\/p>

\u201cICE should benefit from ongoing good volumes in many of its markets,\u201d she says. \u201cThe upside should come from its mortgage originations business where it acquired Black Knight and is building out a technology platform to automate mortgage origination. If rates come down, originations (which are virtually at a standstill as buyers wait for better rates) will return.<\/p>

\u201cAmazon is a structural winner in both cloud and AI as well as a business with significant margin potential in its US e-commerce operations as it leverages its scaled and now regionalised logistics capability.\u201d<\/p>

Quality, defensive small caps<\/h2>

In small caps land, perhaps the most interesting and hottest contested part of Australian institutional equities, Eley Griffiths co-founder Ben Griffiths reckons the RBA will be reluctant to lift rates.<\/p>

He says it is also OK if the RBA does not cut rates in the near term; the market\u2019s happy to sit tight.<\/p>

\u201cGiven the All Ordinaries Index is currently flirting with historic highs, now is not the time to lose resolve towards stocks,\u201d Griffiths says.<\/p>

\u201cThe market is now well conditioned for indefinitely high interest rates. We continue to own quality names with defensive earnings attributes to better withstand a more challenging economic conditions.\u201d<\/p>

He tips gold miner Capricorn Metals and funds management investor Pinnacle Investment Management Group as key stock picks.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Anthony Macdonald<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0is a Chanticleer columnist. He is a former Street Talk co-editor and has 10 years’ experience as a business journalist and worked at PwC, auditing and advising financial services companies.\u00a0Connect with\u00a0Anthony\u00a0on\u00a0Twitter<\/a>.\u00a0Email\u00a0Anthony\u00a0at\u00a0a.macdonald@afr.com<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Disclaimer:<\/em><\/p>

This material (or any contribution to it) is not intended to constitute advertising or advice (including legal, tax or investment advice or security recommendation) of any kind. \u00a0It is of a general nature only and was current only at the time of initial publication. The information and opinions contained herein are not necessarily all-inclusive and, as such, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of any assumption contained herein and no responsibility arising for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Paradice, its officers, employees or agents. \u00a0It may contain certain forward looking statements, opinions and projections that are based on the assumptions and judgments of Paradice with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and market conditions and future business decisions, all of which are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many of which are beyond the control of Paradice. Because of the significant uncertainties inherent in these assumptions, opinions\u00a0and judgments, you should not place undue reliance on these forward looking statements. You should consider your own needs and objectives and consult with a licensed financial adviser. For the avoidance of doubt, any such forward looking statements, opinions, assumptions and\/or judgments made by Paradice may not prove to be accurate or correct.\u00a0 References to securities may or may not represent the holdings of the Paradice Funds.\u00a0It does not reflect any events or changes in circumstances occurring after the date of publication.<\/em><\/p>

The information may contain confidential, proprietary, privileged or copyright material belonging to us, related entities or third parties and may not be copied, reproduced, published, disclosed or redistributed in any format without the prior approval of Paradice.<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Contributors:<\/strong><\/p>

Tom Richardson<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Further Information<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Meet Our Investment Teams<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

8th July, 2024 AFR: How to play higher interest rates for longer in equities Our super funds made two things clear: rates are likely to be higher for longer and equities are back in fashion. We ask some stock pickers to name their calls. Published …<\/span> Read More<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":12978,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_mo_disable_npp":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[77],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-share-markets"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHow to play higher interest rates for longer in equities - Paradice Investment Management AU<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/staging.paradice.com\/au\/how-to-play-higher-interest-rates-for-longer-in-equities\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How to play higher interest rates for longer in equities - Paradice Investment Management AU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"8th July, 2024 AFR: How to play higher interest rates for longer in equities Our super funds made two things clear: rates are likely to be higher for longer and equities are back in fashion. 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